The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon

Zhao Jiangchuan's guess was correct.

Ye Tan approached Amphibious Stone to invest in order to hunt a big one.

That is the futures market.

Futures are a financial derivative instrument.

The earliest futures can be traced back to the ancient Greek and Roman periods.

At that time, central trading venues, bulk barter transactions, and trading activities with the nature of futures trading appeared in the European market.

The first modern futures exchange was established in Chicago in 1848, and the exchange established a standard contract model in 1865.

Futures are completely different from spot.

Spot goods are real goods that can be traded, such as grain from farmers' homes, ore produced by mining, and various finished or semi-finished products are all in stock.

Futures are not goods. They are standardized tradable contracts based on certain mass products such as cotton, soybeans, oil, etc. and financial assets such as stocks and bonds.

Therefore, the subject matter can be a certain commodity (such as gold, crude oil, agricultural products) or a financial instrument.

To put it simply, futures are not trading spot resources, they are trading a standardized contract, which evolved from a forward cargo contract.

The initial spot forward transaction was an oral commitment by both parties to deliver a certain amount of goods at a certain time. Later, as the scope of the transaction expanded, the oral commitment was gradually replaced by a sales contract.

This type of contractual behavior is becoming increasingly complex and requires an intermediary guarantee to supervise the on-time delivery and payment of the buyer and seller.

Thus came the Royal Exchange, the world's first commodity forward contract exchange opened in London in 1571.

In order to adapt to the continuous development of the commodity economy, improve transportation and storage conditions and provide information to members.

In 1848, 82 businessmen organized the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT); in 1851, the Chicago Board of Trade introduced forward contracts; in 1865, the Chicago Grain Exchange launched a standardized agreement called "futures contract" to replace The forward contract originally used.

This standardized contract allows contracts to be resold and sold, and gradually improves the margin system.

As a result, a futures market specializing in the purchase and sale of standardized contracts was formed, and futures became an investment and financial management tool for investors.

Fundamentally speaking, the emergence of the futures market is to realize the function of risk transfer. Its forward trading method can allow more spot traders to enhance uncertain market risks.

However, due to its margin system, the futures market has also become a place for high-frequency speculation.

The initial margin is the funds that traders need to pay when opening a new position.

It is determined based on the transaction amount and margin ratio, that is, initial margin = transaction amount * adjusted margin ratio.

The current minimum margin ratio is 5% of the transaction amount, which is generally between 3% and 8% internationally.

For example, a five percent margin.

The spot price of soybeans is 2,700 yuan per ton. If you want to buy or sell 50 tons of soybeans, its value is 135,000 yuan.

But if the futures margin system is used.

You can only use 135,000 yuan and 5%,

That is, for 6,750 yuan, you can conduct a transaction worth 135,000 yuan.

The high degree of leverage makes the futures market highly speculative.

It is precisely the high degree of speculation that allows the futures market to attract more funds.

Hedging is needed to avoid market risks, and only under high-frequency speculation can the hedging positions in hand be concluded.

If there is a pool of stagnant water, the futures market will have no meaning.

Red bean.

A small grain with high protein, low fat and multi-nutrients.

Red bean cultivation area is very small in the world.

China is the country with the largest red bean planting area and largest output in the world.

The annual output is generally 300,000-400,000 tons, and a considerable part is exported to Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.

Japan is the world's largest consumer of adzuki beans, with annual consumption of around 100,000-120,000 tons.

Its annual output is only 60,000-90,000 tons.

Most of the adzuki beans imported by Japan come from China, and the import volume plays a decisive influence on the price trend of adzuki beans in the international market.

But what is interesting is that most of the red adzuki beans imported from Japan are actually sold to China.

Japan imports red adzuki beans from China at a very low price, then uses meticulous processing to give them a fancy biological name, and then exports them to China at a price between one hundred and five hundred times.

In the early 1950s, Japan was the first in the world to launch adzuki bean futures contract trading.

After nearly half a century of transformation, supplementation and improvement, the adzuki bean futures contract of the Tokyo Grain Exchange has become the most influential adzuki bean futures market variety in the world today.

Since the liberalization of the capital market in the 1990s, China has been constantly exploring how to use adzuki bean futures trading to serve production and circulation.

Eight exchanges, including Didu, Modu, Dalian, Changchun, and Hainan, have successively launched red bean futures trading.

Among them, the Tianjin Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange are the most active.

In this round of futures market variety adjustments, red adzuki beans have been retained and will be listed and traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.

In September 1994, it was affected by the Japanese market.

The price of red adzuki beans suddenly entered a long downward cycle.

In just one year, the price of red adzuki beans dropped from 5,600 yuan per ton to 2,000 yuan per ton.

Affected by the spot market.

The red beans of Suzhou Commodity Exchange and Magic City Commodity Exchange suddenly fluctuated sharply.

On the Tianjin Commodity Resources Exchange, red bean 9511 hit a low price of 1,640 yuan/ton.

It was Hong Xiaodou's abnormal fluctuations that attracted the attention of the boss, Ye Tan.

After Ye Tan has been tracking the red bean market for a long time, he discovered that there is capital in Tokyo to attack Douxiaodou in the Chinese market.

Low grain prices hurt farmers.

The yield of red adzuki beans itself is very low. If the price of red adzuki beans is lower than the cost of planting, this industry can be completely destroyed.

By that time, Japan can expand the planting area of ​​adzuki beans and completely monopolize the global adzuki bean price.

The market is never just determined by buyers.

When it becomes a seller's market, the price will not be whatever Japan says.

This is a crop extermination program.

In addition, Japan United Capital can still make huge profits when it uses the spot in its hands to suppress the market.

That is the futures market.

The emergence of the futures market is based on the spot market.

Spot prices will be affected by futures, which are also an expectation of spot prices.

With a high degree of leverage, the Japanese consortium can use the funds in its hands to sell red adzuki bean contracts unlimitedly.

By short selling red beans, you can hedge the losses caused by the spot pressure on the market, and at the same time, you can make a certain amount of profit.

Under the influence of the plummeting price of adzuki beans on the largest exchange in Tokyo, the domestic adzuki bean market has also been greatly impacted.

On three domestic exchanges, the price of adzuki beans is plummeting.

It was precisely because of this that Ye Tan saw the opportunity.

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