Survivorship Bias

    After the game rules are broadcast, a huge one-minute countdown prompt appears right above the birdcage.

    An Wujiu stood there and observed the other players, there were more or less doubtful expressions on everyone's faces.

    This is normal, but if you listen to the rules of the game, you may feel confused.

    Under many preconditions, as a caged bird, you can neither judge the person behind you by sound, nor leave the platform and reach out to touch.

    And the most random thing is that the birds are blindfolded and can't see anything before the cage outsiders get on the platform and determine each other's order.

    The sense of smell is also unreliable, the distance between the platform and the platform is not far, even if there is a special smell on the body, it is impossible to judge whether he is right behind him.

    But maybe because it is a warm-up match, the best solution is taken, and there is no difference except for the first place, and there is no danger of death or elimination.

    So judging from everyone's current expressions, they are not very anxious.

    An Wujiu turned his face and looked at Shen Ti.

    As a result, Shen Ti found out immediately, turned his face, put his scissors hands beside his eyes, and compared him.

    As expected of him.

    One minute goes by very fast.

    "The game is about to start. By the way, I would like to remind you that no player may force other players to leave the platform by violent means, otherwise it will be regarded as a foul and the qualification for the warm-up match will be disqualified."

    "At the beginning of the first round, players who are willing to take the initiative to play the role of caged birds raise their hands for a limited time of 30 seconds. If no player appears, 5 points will be deducted from all players."

    Countdown begins again.

    Everyone seems to have chosen to do nothing.

    The role of the caged bird is different from other roles in terms of scoring. It is a high reward and high risk: once the caged bird guesses the bird catcher behind him, you can get 10 points, but if you fail, you will get 10 points. Five points are directly deducted, and only caged birds may face deductions.

    In addition, it is not easy to succeed. According to the probability, the caged bird seems to have only a 1 in 6 chance of guessing the person who just moved behind him.

    For birds, this is indeed true, An Wujiu thought.

    But it is different for outsiders, especially bird catchers.

    This game is actually a game between the caged bird and the bird catcher.

    "Five seconds left."

    An Wujiu raised his hand.

    He noticed that just as he raised his hand, Shen Ti's hand also lifted up, but in the end he seemed to give up.

    An Wujiu couldn't understand why Shen Ti chose to give up for a while, maybe he hadn't thought about it, but it's not like his character, more like he thought that no one was participating, so he just casually Raise your hand, and when you see someone raising your hand first, let it go.

    "Countdown is over."

    “Player An Wujiu chooses to be the caged bird in the first round of the game, please walk into the cage and stand on the round platform facing the cage door.”

    According to the instructions, An Wu Jiu opened the door of the bird cage, stepped in, and stood on the round table. He faces the door, the platform directly opposite is numbered 1, and the platform facing away is marked 4, clockwise from 1 to 6.

    In other words, the player standing behind him after moving must stop at platform 4.

    "Please blindfold the caged bird."

    So he raised his hand, held the ribbon, covered his eyes and tied it.

    Shen Ti stared at An Wu Jiao in the cage. His pale face, dark red velvet and his lips, wrists wrapped in white gauze, thin shoulders, imprisoned his gorgeous cage.

    In an instant, a strange feeling appeared in his brain.

    For almost the first time, he thought a scene, or a picture, could be called aesthetic.

    Shen Ti never really felt it.

    He came to the altar and saw the people who entered together weeping because of their death, but he stood motionless, the face behind the mask was not cold, but doubtful.

    He didn't understand why he was crying.

    Similarly, he doesn't understand the great joy of people's victory, but he finds it interesting, so he will learn, but sometimes it seems that it is not used correctly, and the sad scene responds with joy , let others think he is a weirdo.

    Even the gesture of tapping on An Wujiu's shoulder just now was something he learned from the two children he met.

    But he doesn't care about the effect, he feels that he is special to An Wujiu, so even if something goes wrong, An Wujiu should not turn his head and walk away like others.

    Shen Ti didn't think anyone was ugly, and he didn't think anyone was beautiful. In his eyes, these various people seemed to share a vague face. So he also didn't understand the artworks in the bunker, those great paintings that were handed down from time to time, even if he looked closely with a magnifying glass, he didn't think it was anything special.

    Seeing An Wu Jiao, he felt different for the first time.

    I think he is not a blurry face, but a precise face, unlike anyone else.

    For the first time, he perceives the special form of aesthetics.

    "The caged bird is ready."

    After covering his eyes, An Wujiu suddenly found that his hearing became very strange, he was usually sensitive enough to catch any sound, but now he can only hear the sound of the Holy Voice, Not even the slightest background sound, footsteps, or breathing could be heard.

    This is probably because the system blocks other sounds for the caged bird to ensure the smooth operation of the game rules.

    It's really quiet.

    I couldn't even hear Shen Ti's eardrops.

    "Next, ask the caged bird to name a number."

    An Wu Jiu was blindfolded and could not see anything.

    Numbers don't matter, he thought.

    Not even moving.

    Those who really want to catch birds will definitely come.

    So he opened his mouth and said a number at random.

    "6."

    "Start moving now."

    Soon, he heard the ethereal child's voice again, singing a song that made his heart feel a little chilly.

    Besides that, An Wu Jiao did not get any outside information.

    The nursery rhyme stopped abruptly, and the holy voice said: "The outsider has moved."

    "Cage bird, who is the bird catcher behind you?"

    The blindfolded An Wujiu moved his lips.

    "Shen Ti."

    The reason he chose Shen Ti was not because he wanted to raise his hand, but because he believed that Shen Ti's level must be the same as him.

    If there are people like Shen Ti level, this game is not a chance.

    "Cage bird, please open your eyes and look back."

    Hearing the instructions of the holy voice, An Wujiu untied the ribbon and looked back.

    Then he smiled slightly.

    Sure enough, it was Shen Ti, and he tilted his head to himself.

    "The caged bird wins this round, and the player gets 10 points for safety, and the rest of the players still get 0 points."

    When he came down, he saw the European boy Josh's brows wrinkled in confusion, knowing that he still didn't understand how he guessed it, after all, he didn't have a relationship with Shen Ti before he entered the cage communicate in one sentence.

    In this game, there is indeed information gap between different players.

    An Wujiu gets more information than new players is the ability range of Shen Ti, Zhong Yirou and Wu You.

    But this information gap will gradually disappear in the next few rounds.

    Because the name of this game is the bird in the cage, so everyone pays too much attention to the bird in the cage, not the self outside the cage, or the bird catcher.

    The bird in the cage has no choice but to guess the person behind him in the cage. At first glance, this winning rate seems to be really 1/6.

    But people outside the cage can choose.

    The moment the bird in the cage shouts the number, they can take the lead by calculating and make themselves from "outside the cage" to "bird catcher".

    The bird catcher is a zero-risk, medium-reward player in this game. It will not deduct points for failing to catch a bird, and can get more points than ordinary cage outsiders when successful.

    So, this game should be read as: how to make yourself a bird catcher as much as possible without being prejudged by the caged bird.

    In this reversal position, the game is no longer a "caged bird", but a chair grab.

     Grab the same chair.

    An Wujiu and Shen Ti recognized each other's strength, so he believed that Shen Ti had already understood the hidden meaning of the rules and changed his position to the role of a bird catcher, when he shouted the number 6 , calculate the platform to be occupied, namely platform 4.

    In this way, after six clockwise movements, Shen Ti can successfully stand behind An Wujiu.

    For the bird catcher, the win rate is one in two.

    Either the capture is successful, or the opponent guesses.

    And once there is a smart bird catcher, the winning rate of the caged bird is also greatly improved.

    He just had to think, who would be so smart.

    Because the process of choosing the platform gives the player full initiative, the player who wants to be a bird catcher will definitely find his position very quickly and quickly, which greatly eliminates the uncertainty.

    But An Wujiu is very clear, Shen Ti is determined, even if he also discovers the rules of the reversal, he may not be bold enough to choose him.

    This is the part where they all bet.

    As long as An Wu Jiao dare not say his name, he will get five points.

    But An Wujiu guessed right.

    He used the bird catcher's psychology to win, and in the first round of the game where everyone didn't fully understand the rules, he found the person who was most likely to seize the role of the bird catcher.

    The holy sound appears.

    "The second round of the game begins, and the bird catcher of the first round of the game is invited to enter the cage, become a new caged bird, and blindfold."

    An Wujiu handed the red velvet ribbon to Shen Ti.

    In the silence, their fingertips accidentally touched.

    Shen Ti covered the ribbon and tied it neatly. And An Wujiu who "regained freedom" felt a little strange to him from outside the cage.

    This time, An Wujiu can focus on other people outside the cage, he does not intend to rob the bird catcher in this round, because he leads by a large margin, and now he is rushing to stand Behind Shen Ti, he was afraid to give Shen Ti 10 points.

    He intends to see if anyone else has discovered the importance of fowlers.

    Shen Ti stood in the cage and gave a number according to the instructions of Shengyin.

    "5."

    The next second, An Wujiu, who was standing still, thought that the bird catcher should choose platform 5 as the starting point.

    6-1-2-3-4, move five times, behind Shen Ti.

    At this time, he saw the young lady named Yang Erci walking straight towards platform 5, and stood up very firmly, when others seemed to be still choosing the platform.

    She is really tall and wears a pair of flat shoes, similar to Zhong Yirou who wears high heels.

    While An Wujiu was watching, Yang Erci was also looking at him. So An Wujiu rolled his eyes.

    Everyone has chosen, and finally there is No. 1 left, An Wujiu stood up. Sure enough, when he was not in the cage, he could hear everyone's footsteps, and even the rubbing of the fabric.

    "Start moving now."

    The song echoed in the hall again.

    Aborted soon.

    "The outsider has moved."

    "Cage bird, who is the bird catcher behind you?"

    An Wujiu stared at Shen Ti, because he was blindfolded, he had to stare at Shen Ti's lips.

    For a moment, he doubted whether Shen Ti could guess.

    But the next moment, he immediately realized that the information he thought he had was poor, but in fact Shen Ti also had it, and he might have learned about it earlier.

    "Yang Erci."

    He guessed right.

    According to the instructions of Shengyin, Shen Ti took off the ribbon, the first thing he saw was An Wujiu's calm face, he had a better chance of winning, then he turned back and saw that he had made the right choice Answer.

    As early as the first round of the game, when An Wujiu was still blindfolded, Shen Ti observed the others and found that among all the outsiders, only he was the first to face the bird catcher Platform 4, which was supposed to be occupied, moved, but there was another person, namely Yang Erci. She seemed to have reacted, but she moved a step slowly. Seeing that he had already gone there, she retracted her legs, paused, and then stopped. Other platforms were chosen arbitrarily.

    So Shen Ti knew, Yang Erci also understood that this was a bird catcher's game, when he became a caged bird in the second round, he had two clear options in his mind - An Wujiu and Yang Erci .

    An Wujiu is still in a calm and peaceful state at the moment, not to win him by unscrupulous means, so he should use this time to observe others, collect information, and prepare for the subsequent rounds.

    So Shen Ti placed his bet on Yang Erci and was rewarded unexpectedly.

     "The bird in the cage wins, player Shen Ti gets 10 points, and other players don't score this round."

    “The current scoring situation on the field: player An Wujiao and player Shen Ti - 10 points, and the rest of the players have 0 points.”

     Halfway through the game, the two players on the field were already leading by a large margin.

    In the third round of the game, change Yang Erci to be the bird in the cage and guess the bird catcher behind. Blindfolded, she stood on the stage and said the number she wanted everyone to move.

    "2."

    An Wujiu wanted to try to grab the bird catcher's platform this round, because he wanted to see who would be disappointed because he didn't grab it.

    When he stood on platform 2 with a very fast reaction speed, he found that Zhong Yirou was just one step away.

     Her discouragement was obvious, she took the next step to stand on platform 3 next to An Wu Jiu, and put her hands on her hips to express her dissatisfaction with him.

    An Wu Jiu pursed the corners of his mouth, showing a smile, as if to express his apology.

    Shen Ti stood on platform 5, and he stood up slowly, after An Wujiu chose his platform.

    This choice is very smart, the caged bird wins, Shen Ti will not lose, and the caged bird loses, he can also get 3 points as a reward. What's more, he had only confronted Yang Erci in the last round, and this time he was the key suspect of Yang Erci.

    So Shen Ti's not fighting or robbing is also within the scope of An Wu Jiu's expectations.

    However, just before the ballad sounded, the scene of Yang Erci staring at him suddenly appeared in front of his eyes.

    So before moving, An Wujiu turned around and made an exchange gesture to Zhong Yirou.

    Volume 5 Abandoned Infant Shelter