money is not guilty

Chapter 58 The New Keynesian Experiment

The multi-media hall of Donghua University complex was crowded with people, and a speech titled "Real Economy and Capital Speculation-An Unresolvable Economic Paradox" was going on.

The speaker is HKU University professor and famous economist Luo Zhisen. This is one of the six speeches that Luo Zhisen will give at Donghua University this year. This is also the main work of Luo Zhisen's academic sabbatical this year.

Universities in Hong Kong have followed the Western teaching methods. Some outstanding scholars and professors will have the opportunity to take academic leave with full salary or reduced salary every once in a while to stimulate researchers’ enthusiasm through learning, cultivation, communication or fulfillment. creativity.Luo Zhisen is a visiting professor at Donghua University, and he just took this opportunity to come to Donghua University for academic exchanges and attend a local economic forum.

Everyone was sitting upright, listening to Professor Luo's passionate and generous speech. The participants were students from Donghua University, scholars who came here especially, and some well-known entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs in Donghua City, including the People's Bank of China, Bank of China, etc. The leaders of the Supervision Bureau and the Finance Office participated.

Sitting in the hall, Wang Chong seemed to have returned to his student days.These seem like yesterday, but 12 years have passed in a blink of an eye.

Ma Xiaoxiao sat next to her, feeling drowsy. She is not a person who loves to study. When she was studying, she was often late and skipped classes. Sometimes she asked Wang Chong to help her occupy a seat. In return, she often gave Wang Chong Bring some snacks.Seeing that Wang Chong was listening attentively, she was bored, took Wang Chong's hand, and wrote four words in his palm.

"I like you."

Wang Chong was unmoved, Ma Xiaoxiao felt bored, and leaned back on the seat to doze off. After a while, she wrote four more words on Wang Chong's hand.Wang Chong froze and didn't speak.

The speech naturally involved the country's 2.0 trillion [-] macro policy, which Luo Zhisen defined as an experiment of New Keynesianism with Chinese characteristics.

The advantages and benefits of this policy are obvious. Through the introduction of stimulating policies, infrastructure construction will be carried out throughout the country, and domestic demand will be stimulated through investment, helping the country to overcome the most difficult reality. However, it has also brought many disadvantages.

That is the speculative nature of capital, which has led to the flow of funds away from the real economy and into the capital market, resulting in overcapacity in many industries, and the low return on investment has paved the way for the debt crisis. Inflation, asset bubbles, repeated investment, and unfinished projects are becoming more and more active, hindering economic transformation, especially the high debt of local governments, which has seriously overdrawn the national credit.

Fortunately, the country has foreseen this possibility, and various policies are being formulated in recent years to relieve the sequelae of macro policies.

"Let's make up a story to explain this market logic."

Luo Zhisen said: "Stimulated by new policies, various platform companies have been established in City S in the past few years, and their debts have reached a new limit. It just happened to encounter a climate of strict regulation, coupled with local debt audits and various regulatory documents, Because there is no budget limit, the way to do non-standard business is blocked, and the platform cannot issue new debts. Banks dare not make large purchases under the pressure of the new asset management measures that are about to be implemented, and lose the bank's blood transfusion place. The financial crisis was severe. Therefore, the municipal government held a meeting and decided to postpone the payment of the teachers’ salaries of School A: the teachers who could not pay their salaries, under the pressure of the mortgage, had no choice but to go to the square to protest.”

"Banking problems are also brewing. When the policy was relaxed a few years ago, a certain bank president released a large amount of loans with a stroke of a pen. Under the situation of strict supervision, the risk exposure was caused by the inability to borrow new ones to repay the old ones. Due to the huge amount, it was a shock. The supervisory department and the auditing department caused the president to go to the roof because he knew he could not shirk his responsibility."

"Long-dated debt has been extended indefinitely, and the balance sheet is full of zombie assets. You can only survive with liquidity that is seriously misallocated. At this time, stability overwhelms everything. In the previous financial history, I would like to ask everyone here Dear students, if you are the leading group of this government, how can you break the situation?"

A classmate raised his hand and said, "If it were me, I would burst the asset bubble and start over. Short-term pain is worse than long-term pain!"

Everyone present burst into laughter.Wang Chong thought to himself, if he was himself when he was studying in the past, he might stand up and say something similar, but after several years of work, he also knows that this approach will not work, once the bubble bursts, it will inevitably It will cause great social turmoil, increase in unemployment rate, debt default, etc., which is unbearable for any government.

Luo Zhisen also smiled slightly and said, "This student is very courageous, please give me some applause."

There were sparse applause in the arena.

Luo Zhisen went on to say, "However, the reality is that the increase in housing prices, the increase in the price of land transfer fees, the increase in land mortgage loans, the decrease in bank non-performing ratios, the increase in receivables, the increase in residents' property income, the increase in local fiscal taxes, the payment of wages on time, and the teachers' We go back to school and continue to teach. The bubble is still there, but it is the young people who have lost their dreams that are hurt."

The arena fell into silence.

Someone asked: "Professor Luo, what should our country do?"

Luo Zhisen said slowly, "The current national policy is to promote decapitalization and deleveraging operations, and to allow capital to flow to the real economy through policies. It is not to pierce the bubble, but to slowly deflate the bubble, sacrificing part of the speed and affordability. losses to achieve a soft landing for the economy.”

A business owner stood up, "Professor Luo, to be honest, I didn't understand what you said. I just want to ask, will housing prices rise or fall in the future?"

There was another burst of commotion from the crowd. The question asked by the boss was also what most people present were concerned about.

Luo Zhisen smiled, "This gentleman is very down-to-earth, but I am an economist, not a prophet. During my stay in Donghua, I will have five speeches, all of which will be centered on this, and this gentleman will also be among them. The topic of concern, the benevolent sees the benevolent and the wise sees the wisdom. I believe that after listening to these five speeches, you will come to your own judgment. If you are interested, you can always follow my Weibo and the school’s notice. Thank you for your support!"

At the end of the speech, everyone applauded.Although the topic is heavy, everyone has benefited a lot from every sentence.The people in the hall began to disperse gradually, and the leaders of the school and the cadres of the city also stepped forward to take photos with Luo Zhisen and have some simple exchanges.Zhao Xiaocheng from the Tianma Group was also among them.

After everyone had dispersed, Wang Chong brought Ma Xiaoxiao forward, "Hi, teacher." He introduced, "This is my girlfriend, Ma Xiaoxiao, a reporter from Donghua Daily."

Ma Xiaoxiao sweetly called out, "Hello, Professor Luo."

This time Wang Chong called her to meet his mentor, Ma Xiaoxiao really dressed up carefully, put on light makeup, and wore a Burberry windbreaker, which accentuated her tall figure.

Luo Zhisen looked Ma Xiaoxiao up and down, seeing that Ma Xiaoxiao was a little confused.Fortunately, his gaze didn't stay too long, and he smiled and said, "Wang Chong, I didn't expect you to find such a beautiful girlfriend. It seems that your mistress and I's worries were in vain."

Wang Chong smiled shyly.

Ma Xiaoxiao was elated when she heard it. The famous economist talked and laughed happily on stage, but he was very amiable and unassuming off the stage, which made her feel relieved.

Zhao Xiaocheng from the Tianma Group came over, "Professor Luo, after a farewell to Hong Kong, we finally waited for you to come to our Donghua City. Our Chairman Qi prepared a little wine in the clubhouse to welcome you."

Luo Zhisen said: "Old Mr. Qi is too polite."

Zhao Xiaocheng said, "You are the chief consultant of our Tianma Group, so you should do this." He glanced at Wang Chong and said, "Hello, Manager Wang!"

Wang Chong said indifferently: "Mr. Zhao."

Zhao Xiaocheng laughed, "You are a student of Professor Luo. As the saying goes, famous teachers give rise to outstanding apprentices. Everyone in our company admires you for the project of Shunfa Aluminum. He said that Manager Wang is professional, outstanding, and handsome. Many people want to worship you as a teacher, but then you left the project team, and the girls in our company were all lost, haha!"

After hearing this, Ma Xiaoxiao felt very unhappy, and couldn't help pinching Wang Chong's arm.

Wang Chong said calmly, "Mr. Zhao, don't make fun of me. In terms of professional knowledge, I still need to learn more from you."

Zhao Xiaocheng said, "It doesn't matter, why don't we go there together at noon. Our Chairman Qi also admires you very much after hearing about you."

Luo Zhisen smiled and said, "President Zhao's kindness, I appreciate it. Today I have an appointment with Wang Chong for other matters. Chairman Qi is there. How about I personally visit the door some other day?"

Zhao Xiaocheng persisted for a while, seeing that Luo Zhisen was unmoved, he had no choice but to leave.

Wang Chong and his party came to a small fish restaurant near Donghua University.This fish restaurant has been in business for more than ten years. The fish soup is delicious and the price is not high. It is well-known in Donghua City.Every time Luo Zhisen came to Donghua, he had to order the fish from this restaurant. Wang Chong called in advance and made an appointment for a private room.

Luo Zhisen said, "The older you get, the more greedy you become. Ever since you brought me here to eat ten years ago, I have never forgotten the taste after returning home. No matter what your wife does, you can't make the taste of this restaurant. Today I want two servings!"

Wang Chong smiled and said, "No matter how much you eat, I can afford it."

Back then, Luo Zhisen came to Donghua University to give lectures and wanted to visit Donghua City. The college sent Wang Chong as a guide. Luo Zhisen liked food and asked Wang Chong to take him to taste the famous food of Donghua City.At that time, Wang Chong was a poor student with less than 100 yuan for his whole body. In order to treat him to fish, he borrowed 200 yuan from Ma Xiaoxiao.It was in this fish shop that Luo Zhisen had an in-depth conversation with Wang Chong, and decided to take Wang Chong to Hong Kong to study for a master's degree.

Luo Zhisen valued Wang Chong very much, and Wang Chong did not disappoint his teacher's expectations. During his postgraduate studies, he published several important papers, and one of them was co-signed by the journal "Eetrica".Luo Zhisen originally wanted to recommend him to go to UC Berkeley to study for a PhD with his supervisor. With Wang Chong's academic performance and his recommendation, it was almost a sure thing. It's a pity.However, seeing Wang Chong's prosperous life in Donghua Bank, a stone in his heart fell to the ground.

Ma Xiaoxiao smiled and said, "Professor Luo, I paid for the money that Wang Chong invited you to eat fish back then! Fortunately, he used my money to cheat you into a graduate student quota. Such a good thing, why didn't it come your turn?" And me! It's so unfair!"

Luo Zhisen said: "It's easy to go to graduate school with me, but I'm afraid it's not so easy to graduate."

Ma Xiaoxiao quickly made a grimace, "I hate reading. Only Wang Chong can enjoy studying such boring theories. I'd better follow my news obediently."

Luo Zhisen laughed loudly. The old and the young started chatting, but Wang Chong became like a superfluous person, so he had to lower his head and eat fish in a muffled voice.Luo Zhisen said: "Wang Chong, this time I came to Donghua, I saw that you are much more mature than before. However, I heard that you have caused a lot of trouble recently?"

Wang Chong said embarrassingly: "Teacher, it's not like you don't know about my temperament. I'm good at doing things, but I can't understand some bad rules in the industry, and I will always offend some people."

Ma Xiaoxiao yelled, "Yes, yes, you are so right. This stubborn donkey, Wang Chong, has identified one thing, and even ten cows can't hold it back. This teacher, you have to talk about him well. "

Luo Zhisen said earnestly, "China is no better than foreign countries. Overseas, your style of doing things may work. In China, you pay attention to a square and round way. As for you, square profits and round losses are easy to suffer."

Wang Chong said: "Teacher, isn't it wrong to insist on principles and professional ethics?"

Luo Zhisen said, "Principles are important, methods are more important, and results are the most important. Sometimes, in order to achieve the goal, it is also necessary to moderate or take some measures."

Wang Chong was thoughtful, but remained silent.

Luo Zhisen knew that his personality did not develop overnight, so he did not try to persuade him.

Wang Chong asked: "Teacher, I heard you said that you are going to be the independent director of East China Bank?"

Ma Xiaoxiao said, "Director, will there be a lot of money?"

Luo Zhisen laughed, "At my age, you will find that money is not the most important thing. I consider accepting this position because I can get in touch with more microscopic things and improve my research. If I want to make money , as long as you sort out other people's teeth and wisdom before, find a few business occasions to give a few speeches, it is completely faster and easier than this, and you don't have to bear too much responsibility."

Luo Zhisen said, "I haven't formally accepted it yet. I called you out this time because I want to hear your opinion."

Wang Chong thought for a moment, and said, "I have worked in Donghua Bank for so many years, so I know Donghua Bank well. Generally speaking, in this environment, Donghua Bank can make such achievements. It's very good. It's just that a small group of people in the industry have become black sheep for their own interests. This is what I'm worried about. However, if the teacher can serve as the independent director of our industry, I still raise my hand to welcome you. I believe you will come , can bring us something professional.”

He remembered Lin Tianhua's entrustment to him. Now that Tianma Group nominates members of the board of directors, subtle changes have taken place in the originally balanced power structure. Lin Tianhua wants to win Luo Zhisen's support through Wang Chong, and also hopes to offset the influence brought by Tianma Group .However, after thinking about it again and again, Wang Chong held back his words.

Luo Zhisen is such a smart person, seeing Wang Chong hesitate to speak, he asked: "Do you have something to say?"

Wang Chong said: "I have a sentence that I don't know if I should say it or not."

"Wang Chong, when did you become such a mother-in-law?"

Wang Chong then said: "The situation of our bank's senior management is a bit delicate. What I want to say is that if the teacher becomes an independent director of our Donghua Bank, he can make a fair and objective judgment when it comes to some key matters. "

Luo Zhisen knew what it meant when he heard the strings. He knew that someone wanted to test him through this disciple, but because of Wang Chong's character, he didn't want to affect his judgment, so he laughed, "Don't worry. Well, I know the responsibilities and obligations of independent directors."

Only then did Wang Chong heave a sigh of relief.

After lunch, Wang Chong and Ma Xiaoxiao sent Luo Zhisen back to school to rest.

The two were walking on the school playground, attracting the attention of a group of schoolmates.Ma Xiaoxiao asked: "Idiot, I asked you a question this morning, have you figured out how to answer me?"

Wang Chong was taken aback, "What's the problem?"

Ma Xiaoxiao was furious, "Dead Wang Chong, you scoundrel, I won't talk to you anymore."

Wang Chong chuckled and coaxed, "Okay, I promise you."

But Ma Xiaoxiao was relentless, "My girl is angry, you have to apologize to me."

"I apologize to you."

"Hmph, there is no sincerity at all. You have to learn from me!" Ma Xiaoxiao said, "Wang Chong, close your eyes. Stretch your hand over and don't peek."

Wang Chong acted according to his words, only felt something slipped on his wrist, Ma Xiaoxiao said: "You can open your eyes."

Wang Chong lowered his head, but it was a Cartier watch.

"Wang Chong, happy birthday."

Wang Chong let out a cry, and then he remembered that today is his 33rd birthday.Wang Chong took this kind of thing very lightly. It seemed that after leaving his hometown, Wang Chong never had a birthday. Only when it was the lunar birthday, his parents would call and remind him to remember to eat dumplings.Unexpectedly, Ma Xiaoxiao actually remembered her birthday.

Ma Xiaoxiao saw that he didn't speak, "Capricorn man, can't you even say thank you?"

Wang Chong said, "It's just such an expensive gift..."

Ma Xiaoxiao waved her hands and said, "Men, you don't need to be particular about food and clothing, but you don't even have a decent watch. How can you hang out with this girl in the future? You have to remember, wear this watch, and you are not allowed to take it off in the future." Come down, every time you look at the time, you must remember to miss me, miss me, every minute, every second, you must have me in your heart, Wang Chong, do you understand?"

Wang Chong was moved in his heart, "Xiaoxiao, you are so kind to me."

Ma Xiaoxiao said, "Wang Chong, I like you. I treat you well just to let you remember my kindness. No one else can take you away from me in the future."

Wang Chong gently hugged her in his arms, "No."

Ma Xiaoxiao had a meeting in the afternoon, Wang Chong sent her to the door, Ma Xiaoxiao winked, "Please treat me to dinner after get off work."

Back in the row, Wang Chong's phone rang a text message, but it was Li Yishu who sent him a text message, only four short words: Happy birthday.

Wang Chong sat in the car, thoughtful.