Rebirth: The Financial Giant

"Reborn Financial Giant (

Monday, July 29, morning.

Lu Ming is also keeping an eye on the affairs of Lao Yang and others, but that's all there is to it, there is more important work at the moment.

In the chairman's office of Tiansheng Capital Headquarters, Qi Wei is here, sitting on a single sofa in the lounge area, Lu Ming is standing by the floor-to-ceiling window in the office, his left hand is in his pocket, and his right hand is holding a cup of hot tea, looking at the window A street view towards the new financial center of Ningzhou.

Qi Wei looked at Lu Ming and said, "The offshore exchange rate is going to break 7. Will it be depreciated so much? When?"

Currently, the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.8827 yuan per US dollar.

Lu Ming said succinctly: "At the beginning of next month, around 2,000 basis points, onshore and offshore will break the figure of 7."

Qi Wei couldn't help being a little surprised when he heard it. The devaluation was still a bit big, and many people were concerned about the psychological threshold of 7.

You must know that in the foreign exchange war in 2016, the integer number 7 was not broken. In the most difficult stage of the trade war last year, 7 was still not broken, so this is a very important psychological threshold.

"I participated in the internal informal economic video conference the day before yesterday, and I didn't have much expectations for this negotiation." Lu Ming came to the sofa in the lounge area and sat down.

Qi Wei couldn't help but said: "That is to say, it is impossible to discuss the 10% tariff on 300 billion US dollars of goods?"

"I don't know, but it is estimated that we can't reach an agreement. This time we cut a lot, and the other party has been trying to find a way to make up for it." Lu Ming put one side of the teacup on Erlang's leg and said, "The preparations have started in advance."

This is the response of the commander-in-chief to increase taxes on US$300 billion of products.

Devaluation has both pros and cons.

Positive aspects: expand exports to hedge against the impact of additional tariffs; increase negotiating leverage; reduce the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the country. Prior to this, we should take the initiative to depreciate the RMB, leaving some flexibility for follow-up strategy formulation and so on.

Disadvantages: It may lead to capital flight, of course, some capital cannot escape due to "quilts"; it is not conducive to imports; it is not conducive to the stock market, if there is an expectation of further depreciation, foreign investment inflows will be more cautious, and domestic capital will be more conservative; The exchange rate with other countries is linked, and the devaluation of the dollar will also cause the devaluation of other countries' currencies, which is not conducive to the economic and trade balance of other countries.

But after comprehensive consideration and weighing the pros and cons, the final decision is to take the initiative to depreciate.

Another major reason is that Lu Ming also expressed a clear view of the expectation that North America will continue to cut interest rates in the video conference. There is no ambiguity, but a very positive statement. Simply saying that the Fed cut by 25 basis points in June is not enough, and it will be confirmed later. There will be further interest rate cuts, and the global recession will become more pronounced.

In general, short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate, whether it is a substantial appreciation or depreciation, is not good.

But there is no way, the lesser of two evils.

Since the foreign exchange war that year, Tiansheng Capital has held a large number of offshore RMB chips in its hands. It held a meeting on weekends last weekend, and a decision has been made at the top, so it will cooperate to knock down the foreign exchange market.

In this way, the foreign exchange price can be depreciated before the upper level has used the corresponding financial tools, and a certain space has been reserved.

"In addition, regarding the layout of the external market, especially the U.S. stock market, the overall idea of ​​going long this year remains unchanged, but we need to do a short-term short-selling strategy." Lu Ming explained to Qi Wei.

"Is the chairman worried about the risk of inversion of U.S. bond yields?" Qi Wei couldn't help but say that the current U.S. bond yield situation has attracted much attention from the market. upside down.

Traders typically pay special attention to the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, which have risen before every recession in the past five decades. The inversion phenomenon is also seen by the market as a reliable indicator of a recession, even though it often takes months or even years to come.

U.S. bond yields tend to drop significantly when market sentiment rises sharply, so they are often used by the market as a "barometer" for observing risk aversion. The so-called yield inversion is actually not difficult to understand.

Under normal circumstances, the long-term yield should be higher than the short-term yield, that is, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than the 2-year yield, and the yield inversion means that the 2-year yield is higher.

That is to say, the income of 2 years ago is higher than the income of 10 years.

This reflects the lack of optimism about the future economy, and more importantly, this phenomenon occurs before every recession, surprisingly accurate, and the market often reacts in advance.

Lu Ming sighed and said, "This year is an eventful year, and the global market fluctuates violently. However, a market that magnifies speculative volatility can actually magnify our yield."

This is true, but conversely, in a violently volatile market, volatility is amplified, speculative operations and corresponding strategic tools are wrong, and the loss rate will also be amplified.

This year is really not easy, the whole world is difficult.

The domestic economic and industrial growth rate is declining; the Argentine financial market is directly collapsing; the German economy is growing negatively; the EU's economic growth is declining; Brazil's economy is declining; The drop in oil yields for the big dog indicates a significant reduction in demand for oil; the negative issue of Great Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, and many other things.

These things resonate with each other, promote the increase of global economic risks, and further lead to the increase of global economic recession expectations, and the inversion of US bond yields is just around the corner.

The risk aversion of investors in the old and the United States is gradually heating up. At that time, they will abandon securities such as stock futures and buy a large number of relatively safe treasury bonds. The 10-year U.S. bond has been snapped up, causing the price to surge, resulting in a sharp drop in yield, which is about to drop. below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield.

"This matter of inversion... Be prepared for the Fed to cut interest rates twice or even three times." Lu Ming said, once the U.S. bond yields are inverted, the Fed usually adjusts them in two ways.

One is to shrink the balance sheet, which can raise long-term bond yields by selling 10-year Treasury bonds by the Fed, thereby lifting the inversion.

The other is to cut interest rates, which can immediately lift the inversion, because interest rate cuts will directly drive short-term bond yields to plummet.

After explaining the matter, Lu Ming asked again, "By the way, how are the virtual currency chips distributed?"

Hearing this, Qi Wei immediately nodded and replied: "The shipment target has been completed two days ago. Up to now, the total market value of the global virtual currency market is 278.3 billion US dollars, with an overall increase of +4.72% yesterday, and the 24-hour trading volume is 60.6 billion US dollars."

Qi Wei added: "The performance of mainstream currencies, BTC temporarily reported $10,083, up +3.82%; ETH temporarily reported $222.31, up +7.90%; LTC temporarily reported $94.3, up +6.02 %, ETC temporarily reported $6.14, up 4.91%; EOS temporarily reported $4.58, up +11.73%; among the top 100 coins by market value, the top three gainers were EDR, WTC and EGT, up +43.65%, + The data of 25.77% and ~www.novelmt.com~ came out yesterday. Qi Wei actually remembered it so clearly. Lu Ming couldn't help but admire him a little. The other party reported it without reading the material. something.

There are a lot of types of virtual currency, dazzling, even Lu Ming can't figure out how many currencies there are on the market. In short, the virtual currency market is full of demons.

Tiansheng QDIE started shipping and distributing chips in early July. At that time, the total global virtual currency market value was 365.2 billion US dollars, and the first day of shipments was the largest. At that time, the 24-hour total transaction volume of all currencies reached 138.6 billion US dollars. , released more than double the trading volume of the previous day.

At that time, the quotation of Bitcoin was $12,774, and the total market value of Bitcoin was $268 billion. The total market value of this currency accounted for more than 70% of the total market value of the global virtual currency market.

Today, Tiansheng QDIE has completed the shipment target, and the total market value of the global virtual currency market has shrunk to $278 billion, the total market value of Bitcoin is about $210 billion, and the 24-hour total trading volume of all currencies has also dropped. .

Tiansheng QDIE is not satisfied with taking long positions. Bitcoin will be backhanded at around $12,000, and it is not afraid of being shorted, because Tiansheng QDIE is smashing wildly with the other hand, and the amount of funds is too strong, few people dare to short.

If it is said that Bitcoin is decentralized, it is really nonsense. When Tiansheng QDIE has the most chips, it is definitely the new center of Bitcoin, at least one of the centers, that is, Dazhuang and Qiangzhuang!

Even if it is the second wave since last year, it still has a huge influence on the price fluctuation of Bitcoin, decentralization? At least this is not true for Lu Ming here.

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