Rebirth: The Financial Giant

Time comes to the end of September and today is Thursday, September 27th.

In terms of domestic hot news, house-related news still maintains a high degree of popularity, but then again, this hot spot is always a hot spot. After all, the house is the focus of the common people to settle down and discuss the house. Time.

However, Lu Ming has already transferred his energy to Tiansheng Capital. The foundation is progressing in an orderly manner as planned, so it is enough to keep track of the progress.

When I came to the company this morning, I held a meeting with the managers of the investment research and analysis department. Qi Wei, Li Mingyang, Ge Feng and several important fund managers also attended the meeting.

"The news from the other side of the ocean yesterday, the Fed announced its decision to raise interest rates: the Fed raised interest rates as scheduled, and the interest rate path has not changed." At the meeting, Qi Wei took the lead in saying.

As soon as yesterday's news came out, the expectation of raising interest rates in the beautiful country finally came to fruition.

Qi Wei added: "Yesterday, the US market fell back, but it did not plummet. The Dow and S&P 500 stabilized, and the Nasdaq fell a bit this month."

Lu Ming, the chief of the meeting, said solemnly: "It is not optimistic, the US bond yield is expanding its upward trend. At the end of last month, the yield was still hovering around 2.9. In October, the 10-year Treasury bond of the old and the United States rushed to above 3.2, which is a high probability event. , and the inversion of U.S. bond yields is a very bad thing.”

The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond of the United States is the anchor of the capital price in the North American market and even the global market. The increase in the yield often indicates an increase in the market capital price, which in turn has a significant impact on the stock market. Tiansheng Capital now has a considerable amount of diving capital In the U.S. stock market, it is natural to pay close attention to all aspects of the situation in the United States.

The so-called yield inversion, that is, short-term Treasury bond yields and long-term bond yields are the same or even higher than long-term bond yields.

Under normal circumstances, the yield of short-term treasury bonds is generally lower than that of long-term bonds, and vice versa is abnormal, and abnormal conditions often lead to accidents.

The reason is actually very simple, the same borrower A, the same is 100 yuan, the term of lending to B is short-term 1 year, the rate of return is 2.8%, and the term of lending to C is 10 years, the rate of return is still 2.8% , even lower than 2.8%, it is impossible for A to lend money to C under normal circumstances.

Because the 10-year period is too long, A has to bear significantly more risk to C than B, and is willing to lend to C only if the yield is higher than 2.8%.

Qi Wei looked at the crowd and said: "I think the reason for the inversion situation is the market's expectations for the North American economy. Short-term yields are a response to the currency's Z policy. When the Fed raises interest rates, short-term Treasury yields will be higher than long-term yields. , and the long-term yield is a response to economic expectations. The logic is not difficult to understand, because U.S. bonds are considered the safest asset. When the economy is bad, U.S. bonds will become a safe-haven asset. As a result, prices will rise and yields will go down. On the contrary, when the economy is expected to improve, prices fall and yields rise.”

Another investment research analyst who attended the meeting said: "As we all know, a large part of the rise in US stocks this round is due to tax cuts and the economic improvement brought by big funds. The unemployment rate in North America in August was 3.9%, almost the lowest in history. The 4.2% economic growth in the second quarter was also 4 points higher than expected."

Lu Ming said immediately: "The current time point is sensitive, the results of the mid-term elections in the United States and the United States are about to be announced. I estimate that the old special committee will lose, then the effect of tax cuts and major infrastructure projects he vigorously promotes will be greatly reduced, which will lead to the loss of the US stock market. Another important support is that the old and the United States will continue to tighten their currency policies in the future. Let us put aside whether to raise interest rates in the future, but it is another aspect that the market is worried about raising interest rates. The stock market will definitely react in advance. There will definitely be a response. In addition, the issue of the repurchase of shares by listed companies in Magnesium will also have a huge impact on the market.”

The repurchase operation of listed companies is also an important supporting logic to promote the bull market of U.S. stocks. The net assets before and after the repurchase remain unchanged, but the number of outstanding shares decreases and the minimum assets per share increase, which will theoretically increase the value of the stock, which is reflected in the increase in the stock price .

Qi Wei, who was present at the meeting, said immediately: "According to our data, US-listed companies carried out about US$680 billion in stock repurchases in the first half of this year, exceeding the record of US$530 billion in 2017."

Lu Ming shook his head slowly and said, "This is not the point. The driving force for listed companies to buy back shares lies in the tax cuts in Laos and the United States, as well as the low interest rate market environment. The third quarter is coming to an end, and 86% of the constituent companies in the S&P 500 have disclosed Suspension of stock repurchase before October 5th, the repurchase is nothing, and the repurchase of US stocks may peak this year, which is a big negative for US stocks."

Obviously, everyone in the meeting heard it. Lu Ming's speech before and after the meeting all showed that his attitude towards the market outlook is bearish, at least in the short term, he is undisguised bearish, especially the US stock market.

Li Mingyang immediately looked at Lu Ming and said, "U.S. stocks are currently running at a high level, while domestic A-shares are at a low level. If U.S. stocks plummet, it will definitely have an impact on A-shares. What advice does the chairman have?"

Several other participating fund managers also looked at the big BOSS.

Lu Ming said without hesitation: "As you said, our big A is in the low position, and it has always followed suit, so what is there to say? How many chips can be picked up for the floor price."

Li Mingyang and several other fund managers who were present at the meeting immediately nodded to show their understanding.

Lu Ming added: "U.S. stocks have more room for periodic decline than A-shares, that's for sure. Big A hasn't risen this year, so the decline shouldn't be too big. On the U.S. stock side... the future market trend largely depends on As for the results of the mid-term elections, no one can predict exactly what will happen. For ordinary investors, it is a good thing to wait and see in such an uncertain situation, but for us, it is to remind us It's time to bet."

The focus of today's meeting is to discuss the downside risks of U.S. stocks, which will determine the adjustment of Tiansheng Capital in the future.

At the meeting, it was finally determined that the next market will be mainly bearish, so there will be a clear direction on how to operate.

Qi Wei, who was in charge of the external market, also received the latest instructions from Lu Ming. In the next fourth quarter, Tiansheng Capital mainly shorted US stocks, including shorting the S&P 500 index. The crude oil market layout also closed its long positions and turned to open empty order.

Lu Ming is actually very clear about how the market will go in the fourth quarter of this year, but he still has to go through a process and analyze the current environment for his people before making a decision. , that gives the impression that you really have the ability to see the future, and you can predict the future, which is not good.

In the last quarter of this year, the U.S. stock market crashed and plummeted, leading the global stock market to mourn. Earning is nothing more than a matter of going in when going down and going in when going up.

After the meeting, Lu Ming returned to his office, sat for a while and opened the market software to take a look at the recent trend of Big A.

In the past week, the Shanghai index has performed well, and the rebound strength is not bad. It rebounded from the lowest point near 2650 to 2800 yesterday.

However, in the A-share market dominated by retail investors, a large number of retail investors have not yet realized that in the upcoming October, the limit of 1,000 shares is about to reappear.

Lu Ming stared at the disk and covered his mouth with one hand in silence. He was thinking about whether to let his investment and research department issue an analysis report to give the market a risk warning. To be precise, he was judging whether to issue a bearish research report.

The release of the bearish report at this time should be beneficial from a later point of view. Lu Ming does not think that Tiansheng Capital will release a bearish report and the market will reverse. This decline in US stocks cannot be reversed by one or two institutions.

If there is a risk warning at this time, there will be two inevitable consequences and a third possible consequence for Tiansheng Capital.

The first is to accurately predict the market slump before the market slumps, so that the authority of the company's capital market is further consolidated, which is ultimately reflected in the pricing power; The company gets more chips, which is a real benefit; and the third possible consequence is that if some of the big A retail investors believe it, they will go ashore and wait and see at this time, and they will not be hammered.

At the end, Lu Ming finished thinking and made a decision in his heart. This bearish report should be released, and it is necessary to release it.

Think of it and do it without hesitation, so a call was made to the investment research and analysis department.

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