Rebirth: The Financial Giant

The forum dialogue has just started. Not only are many future industry elites paying attention through media channels, but many investors are actually paying attention. Although most of the investors have little money in their accounts, they have become more and more concerned about people's livelihood and people's livelihood after investing in stocks. National events, economic development, industry drastic changes, etc. are true.

At the scene, the host had a face-to-face interview with Lu Ming: "Do you have any expectations? How high do you think gold will rise in the short term?"

Lu Ming shook his head with a smile, and said, "I don't make predictions, because it's meaningless. Can I count the short-term price fluctuations? All I can tell you is that the downside is basically blocked. Especially after the speech by the newly appointed head of the Fed, now it is more a matter of looking at one of its call options, when and how much."

After a while, Lu Ming, who was still smiling, added: "For us, we don't make price predictions at all, just follow the logic, the logic is still there, the position is held, the logic is over, and the position is closed, it's impossible to say that I am 2O2O In August of this year, the London gold can not reach 2000? It is meaningless."

When Wang Yue in a row of seats heard these words, he also looked at Lu Ming who was talking about it with intrigue. He clearly remembered that not long ago in the backroom lounge, Lu Ming made it clear in front of him. I said that I saw 2000, and I said no predictions when I got here.

Sure enough, you can only believe half of what you say.

What's more interesting is that Wang Yue found that he had hinted at 2000 in the future of the international gold price meeting intentionally or unintentionally, and gave a clear figure. In the eyes of others, Lu Ming just said it casually, but Lao Wang didn't think so. This is a clear target price and a very specific time point!

The wealth code is thrown out like this, but whether you believe it or not depends on the individual.

Tiansheng Capital is once again extremely bullish on gold. The news was quickly reflected in the stock market. The big A side moved immediately. Now there are still ten minutes before the end of the morning session. The gold concept sector has moved up at this time. .

Chifeng Gold, Zijing Mining and many other stocks directly closed the daily limit!

This is the embodiment of pricing power!

Lu Ming didn't know and didn't care about the stock market's reaction now. At this moment, the dialogue forum was still going on, and the host quickly extended the topic to the Fed's currency policy.

I saw Lu Ming leaning on the sofa and said in an orderly manner: "...In my opinion, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has fallen into a self-contradictory predicament. In 2008, Lao Mei was forced to keep releasing water. In recent years, he has been forced to continue to pump water. The current inflation, under various combined factors, will force the money he sends to lose the assets in the market for 30 years in the future, so this money is also passively sent to the market. recent exercise."

"Especially in the currency market, after a large amount of money is sent out, it is panicked by the squeeze of inflation, and funds will be pooled into the currency market on a large scale. This amount of money forms a huge so-called depression where funds are overflowing, which leads to various Interest rates in the money market keep sinking towards zero.”

"If the money market is very low, hedge funds that borrow money from the market will have more fun. They can play with higher leverage. They used to play 50 times. Now the cost of capital is so low, and the repo market borrows several rounds. It’s easy to reach a hundred or even two hundred times leverage.”

"Money comes too easily. The borrowed money can be used to speculate on stocks, futures, treasury bonds, gold, bitcoin, etc. All kinds of derivatives, of course, will push up asset prices."

"So when asset prices are high to a certain level, a large number of hedge funds will reduce volatility, because the higher my assets, the better the market's expectations for the future, of course, to reduce volatility, and lower volatility means market interest rate expectations. will be lower.”

At this time, the host who talked with him said: "Mr. Lu, can I understand that what you said is a strong positive feedback effect of ultra-low profits and asset inflation? That is, the lower the interest rate, the more assets will rise, and assets will rise. Higher rises, in turn, lower profits and volatility?”

Lu Ming nodded again and again: "Yes, that's right. This kind of cycle can enter a positive feedback state, promote each other, stimulate each other, and become stronger and stronger... But we also know that all positive feedback systems are not sustainable. , because it needs constant vibration and constant amplification, it must continuously obtain energy from the outside. When your scale is getting bigger and faster, and the speed is getting faster and faster, and the outside world cannot meet your energy needs, this The system is bound to collapse on itself.”

It is worth mentioning that Tiansheng Capital will no longer accept the management of external funds in the short term. In fact, it also has the same logic. For a commission of 100 million, the annualized return for +160% is 160 million, and 100 billion is that. 160 billion, this is an exponential growth, if you do not control that day Sheng Capital will self-explode in a short period of time, referred to as self-explosion!

Therefore, Lu Ming drew a **** for Tiansheng Capital. The long-term progress along this **** can be achieved steadily. Deviations from this **** range can be tolerated, but the deviation must not be too large, and if there is a deviation, it must be taken actively. Pull back.

In reality, many LPs want to hand over their money to Tiansheng Capital, but Lu Ming will no longer refuse to come as he used to. If he wants to get on the bus, he can either wait for the time axis to extend backwards, or wait. , or investors withdrew in the middle, and other LPs came in to fill the gap.

At the same time, Lu Ming continued: "When you exceed the maximum bearing limit of this system, the result must be collapse. All the collapse of debt, financial collapse, enterprise collapse, and even the collapse of empires are caused by this kind of collapse. The breakdown of the positive feedback mechanism."

The host looked at Lu Ming and nodded silently.

Lu Ming paused for a moment and then continued: "How do funds flow in this market? You will find that the US dollar starts to flow into the market from the Fed's bond purchases, and then stays in the hands of primary dealers and the accounts of big banks. For a little while, but because the bank balance sheet has reached the limit and can't expand any more, it can't keep the money, so it will overflow the bank balance sheet and the money market fund balance sheet."

"But the problem now is that money market funds are also facing a famine of assets. They can't find assets to invest in. Many people ridicule that the funds going north are always buying and buying. The logic can be explained here. In short, there is too much money. , I have to throw it out, it's too hot to hold in my hand."

"But Lu-Shares has a limit, so most of the hot money is blocked from entering our market, but what if the money has nowhere to go? In the end, it can only be returned to the Fed's balance sheet through overnight reverse repurchase. Is there any economic value to this whole cycle? The typical idling of funds doesn’t contribute to the real economy other than making the Wall Street gang go empty-handed.”

The host quickly said: "The key is whether the Fed's game can continue to exist? Can this positive feedback mechanism continue indefinitely?"

Hearing this, Lu Ming leaned on the single sofa he was sitting on, and said with a smile: "I think this should be the highest dream of Wall Street, but anyone with a little common sense knows that this is counterintuitive. It violates the conservation of energy. How can you make more and more money without doing anything? So in my opinion, this game of Laomei has a dead end~www.novelmt.com~ If this game can go on in an infinite loop, it means All the money in the world will eventually be earned by the Wall Street family. The question is what will happen to the others? Three to five million people on Wall Street and more than seven billion people in the world will die?”

The host asked along the way: "Is it possible that this situation really occurs?"

Lu Ming said decisively: "It is absolutely impossible, if we really move towards this trend, the most likely result in reality is that all mankind join forces to destroy Wall Street with violent means and lightning speed, so logically In terms of deduction, it is impossible to reach this step in reality, and this dream of Wall Street is only a dream after all, and cannot be reflected in reality.”

The host added: "Mr. Lu just mentioned that there is a dead end in the Fed's game. Where is the dead end? Can you expand it a little on the scene?"

Lu Ming said concisely: "Inflation!"

Moderator: "Inflation?"

Lu Ming nodded and said: "Yes, it is inflation. In theory, it is impossible for currency to be sealed and idling in the financial market. , the last person to issue stock or the person who owns stock gets cash, he always goes to buy things, luxury cars and mansions, this money has to be spent, so when there is enough money and enough scale, it will push up prices.”

"This also explains that the Fed has continued to raise interest rates in recent years, because severe inflation will force it to raise interest rates, thereby breaking the operation of the entire positive feedback system, so the Fed will definitely raise interest rates next, either in September or October, the Fed will It is also very clear internally that if inflation reaches the extreme value that this system can carry, they will be unable to recover even if they want to control it, but this positive feedback game cannot continue to be played and will collapse sooner or later.”

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